Do you remember where you first saw flat TV screens, robotic maids, teleconferencing, video watches, talking phones, MRI-like medical equipment, flying cars, and vending machines that prepared meals to order? For most of us, it was on The Jetsons, a popular 1960s television cartoon about a traditional American family who lived in the year 2062. Script writers Bill Hanna and Joe Barbera hit the nail on the head with several of their predictions that have come to fruition. Where they may have misjudged was the speed at which these futuristic products came into being. By the year 2000, many of these modern conveniences were already in our homes.
You may be surprised to learn several of the modern conveniences George Jetson and his family introduced us to originally were developed by the United States Armed Forces or military. Microwaves, GPS systems, computers, the Internet, and even canned food are just a few of them. Military planners systematically analyzed what dilemmas future warfighters might face and developed products that would aid the warfighter and facilitate successful missions. Civilian companies gladly piggybacked on the costly gift of research and development the military provided and then fine-tuned their own products for commercial use.
What will the future hold for your business or organization? As business leaders look for the “next big thing,” how can they predict the political, economic, social, cultural, and technological environment of the future? Fifty years ago, this process may have been easier as the world moved more slowly. Today, there are some key differences from the 1960s. First, globalization has changed the way the world lives and interacts. Through a transformation of economics, trade, innovation, and culture, the world has grown smaller and more intimately connected. The amazing acceleration of technology has fueled innovation and economic growth in ways few could have imagined in the 1960s. Additionally, today’s business leaders are faced with what the U.S. Army has coined a VUCA environment – volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (McGee, R., U.S. Department of the Army, 2010, “Strategic leadership primer”; Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College). Given this challenging backdrop, how can leaders best predict where they should steer their organization in the future? Could the answer be in taking a cross-section of industry practices from both Hollywood and the military?
The Power of Storyboards
One of the tools Hanna and Barbera used to develop their storylines for The Jetsons were storyboards. By drawing out thoughts and ideas and then placing them on a board for all to see, they were able to brainstorm and visualize possible storylines or scenarios. Consultant Gareth Morgan adapts this process into a business tool by encouraging organizations to use “picture power” to develop new insights, thinking, and initiatives. By drawing out their “present reality” and what they would like their “future reality” to look like, people can unleash their imagination to create future opportunities (Morgan, G.,1997, “Imaginization: New mindsets for seeing, organizing, and managing,” p. 215; San Francisco, CA: Berret-Koehler Publishers, Inc.). The plethora of activity that daily sweeps over most leaders today leaves little time for exercises such as these, but at what cost to the organization?
Within the U.S. military, on the other hand, planning for the future is mandatory by law. The Joint Strategic Planning System is a formal top-down process that starts with the President. He or she provides strategic guidance in a document called the National Security Strategy, which outlines a strategic approach to ensuring the security of the country, protecting and advancing the U.S. economy and values, and maintaining international order. The strategic environment in today’s world is outlined, as well as the strategic environment the U.S. seeks in the future. The Department of Defense, in turn, takes this guidance and develops the National Defense Strategy. This document drives the Joint Chiefs of Staff to develop the National Military Strategy, which outlines desired future capabilities and direction for the services and combatant commanders. From this document, strategic plans or scenarios are developed and tested through war games. The war games also test potential strategies against possible future scenarios. Through war-gaming scenarios, the military can assess needed capabilities, derive priorities, and develop military budget proposals.
Two industries—one entertains us and the other protects us. For 40 years, Hanna and Barbera led the cartoon industry with ingenious storylines and unforgettable characters such as the Flintstones, Scooby Doo, Yogi Bear, and the Smurfs. Even more successful is the United States Armed Forces, which remains the most powerful in the world today. A potent formula consisting of the imagination-generating techniques of Hanna and Barbera combined with the disciplined planning of the military may be just what the doctor ordered as organizational leaders explore the future. Where could your organization go riding into the future on the coattails of these proven future forecasters?
Captain Jeanne McDonnell (ret.) served on active duty in the U.S. Navy for more than 25 years. Assignments included command of Naval Support Activity Norfolk and Transient Personnel Unit Norfolk, and service on the Joint Staff, the Navy Staff, Commander Surface Warfare Atlantic Staff, and Joint Forces Staff College. She currently is pursuing a doctorate in Strategic Leadership at Regent University.
